With the election finally here, I figured I would give a prediction of how I think the election is going to turn out. Here is my state-by-state prediction along with a numbers total at the end.
McCain states: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming
Obama states: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine (3-1), Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.
Final prediction: Obama wins, 300-238
I feel like there is a lot of hype concerning the red states turning blue. That may be true but it's more likely that it's going to come down to some swing states once again. I don't see Obama winning any southern states besides New Mexico and I don't think he wins Pennsylvania as Clinton's ghost comes back to haunt him for only a few hours. What's really going to matter are Ohio and Missouri.
Ohio has the demographic that Obama really wants to appeal to and that is the working class. I think Obama makes a strong push to get more voters to show up and ultimately edges McCain in that area. Missouri seems to be going more blue by the second. I also expect that to be a close race, but the undecided voters are going to go for Obama.
This race should be decided relatively early as there aren't any West Coast states that are going to have a profound impact on the election. I expect Obama to know if he wins by 11 or midnight, but he's not going to say officially until he gets California, which could take awhile.
Side note: The reason why Maine has two numbers next to it is because the state is not winner takes all. I am predicting Obama gets three of the delegates because of the proportion of the win.
2 comments:
That's an impressive roundup. I want to say that Obama will take some Southern states though. I'm hoping Virginia goes blue, but we'll see.
I think it would be great to see him take some Southern states, but the skeptic in me says the people there won't be able to look past race for the most part.
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